Stock analysis brings together the business, its price, and the investment argument. The numbers give you a starting point. You also need to understand why an investor sees an opportunity and what supports that view.
Follow this guide to build a note with business facts, valuation assumptions, an investor case, a countercase, and questions to check next. BeliefState brings the investor’s argument, cited support, and recorded changes into your AI; filings and dated financial data supply the other inputs.
A worked starting pointEntirely fictional · No real company
FictionalCo, on one page.
Annual revenue
$100m → $120m20% growth
Operating income
$12m10% operating margin
Annual earnings / share
$2.00Assumed earnings
Reference share price
$30.0015× those earnings
The figures start the analysis. They leave growth quality, cash needs, debt, and the durability of earnings unanswered.
Write down what the company sells, who pays, and why customers stay. Identify the drivers of revenue, margins, and cash needs. Read the latest annual report and subsequent updates. Compare demand, industry competition, interest rates, and input costs with your assumptions. Check competitors, management incentives, and how capital is allocated; a price story does not explain the business.
Ask: What would have to be true about customers, costs, or competition for the business to improve?
Keep with the analysis: Company filings, segment disclosures, and relevant investor-relations materials.
STEP 02
Read the financials together
Compare the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement across consistent periods. Check the footnotes and management’s discussion. Growing sales, accounting profit, and cash generation describe different things; explain material differences instead of selecting one flattering number.
Ask: Is growth generating cash, using cash, or relying on financing? Which adjustments matter?
Keep with the analysis: The reporting period, units, accounting basis, and the calculation behind each metric.
STEP 03
Test the valuation assumptions
Estimate what the current price requires the business to achieve. Compare reasonable scenarios for growth, margins, cash generation, and financing. A historical or peer multiple can give context, but different business quality and risk can justify different prices.
Ask: Which assumption changes the valuation most, and what evidence could support it?
Keep with the analysis: A dated price, a clearly defined earnings or cash-flow measure, and explicit assumptions.
STEP 04
Inspect the case and the countercase
With BeliefState connected, ask your AI to open an attributed investor case in available coverage. Examine why the investor thinks the stock is mispriced, the cited support, and what could invalidate the view. Compare that argument with company information. Keep the author’s claims separate from your interpretation.
Ask: For [company] as of [date], open an available investor case in BeliefState. Name the investor, cite the supporting passages, and identify the assumptions, strongest supported countercase, and missing evidence. Separate source statements from your interpretation.
Keep with the analysis: The investor, publication date, cited support, risks, and recorded qualifications.
STEP 05
Record what would change your view
Write down what would make you reconsider and which sources could answer the open questions. When you return, ask your AI for the earlier BeliefState case and recorded revisions. Distinguish a change in the investor’s argument from a company event, price move, or your own interpretation. Keep the original dates.
Ask: For the same case, show recorded revisions since [research date]. Cite each change and preserve the earlier view. Separate author revisions from company events and price moves. Say when no recorded revision is available.
Keep with the analysis: The earlier record, later revisions where available, and dated checking evidence.
For a US public company, start with its annual and subsequent quarterly filings. SEC EDGAR provides filings. The SEC’s financial-statement guide explains the statements, notes, and management’s discussion.
Chapter 3 · Find the company filings
Find the company filings.
For a domestic US public company, begin with its filings. Match the document and reporting period to the question.
10-K · The annual picture
Read Business and Risk Factors, then management’s discussion, the financial statements, and their notes.
10-Q · The interim change
Compare quarterly financials, management’s discussion, and risk updates with the annual picture.
8-K · A material event
Check current reports for events disclosed between regular reports. Read any relevant exhibits.
DEF 14A · Governance and incentives
Use the definitive proxy for shareholder votes, leadership, and compensation disclosures.
Dated market data · The price
Record the quote time, currency, share class, and earnings period used in your valuation.
Foreign issuers and funds can use different forms. Check amendments and later filings. See Investor.gov’s EDGAR guide.
Chapter 4 · Read the financials
Read the financials.
Use consistent periods and definitions. These checks help you ask questions; they are not thresholds that automatically identify an attractive stock.
Five financial measures and the context to check before interpreting them
Measure
What to examine
What can distort the reading
Revenue growth
Change in sales between comparable periods.
Acquisitions, currency, segment mix, and unusually weak comparison periods.
Operating margin
Operating income divided by revenue.
Accounting basis, one-off items, and whether the same definition is used each period.
Cash generation
Operating cash flow, capital expenditure, and financing needs.
Working-capital movements, recurring investment needs, and reconciliation of any free-cash-flow definition.
Balance-sheet resilience
Cash, debt, obligations, and upcoming maturities.
Liquidity needs, financing terms, and dilution. A single leverage ratio cannot describe every obligation.
P/E and other multiples
Price relative to a defined earnings or business measure.
Trailing versus forward inputs, losses, cyclical earnings, and differences between the businesses compared.
On smaller screens, scroll or use the arrow keys inside the table.
Check the arithmetic in the fictional example.
Revenue growth = (120 − 100) ÷ 100 = 20%. Operating margin = 12 ÷ 120 = 10%. P/E = 30 ÷ 2 = 15×. The same periods and units must apply to each calculation.
Write what the ratios leave out.
Revenue growth does not show whether customers return or cash is collected. P/E does not settle the quality or durability of earnings. Cash flow, debt terms, and dilution still need investigation.
Chapter 5 · Test the valuation
Test the valuation.
Try a simplified earnings-multiple example. The calculation is easy; the difficult part is supporting the earnings and the selected multiple.
Write a countercase beside the estimate. What would reduce earnings? Why should this business deserve that multiple? What evidence would make you revise either assumption?
What about DCF and other valuation methods?
Discounted cash flow estimates value from future cash flows discounted to today. It adds assumptions about growth, reinvestment, timing, and the discount rate. Peer multiples offer relative context. Neither method removes uncertainty or produces a guaranteed market price.
Earnings × selected multipleFictional numbers
See the estimate move.
Illustrated value per share = assumed annual earnings per share × selected P/E multiple. Both inputs are your assumptions.
Illustrated value per share
$2.00 × 15
Compare other multiples with the same earnings:
No real issuer, market price, forecast, or recommendation. This simplified illustration omits many valuation inputs and does not suit a loss-making business. These are scenarios, not probabilities.
Choose the right lens
The business, the chart, and the investor’s argument.
01
Fundamental analysis
Examines business performance, financial condition, and valuation. Ask what the company can earn or generate and which assumptions justify the price.
02
Technical analysis
Studies price and volume patterns, including trends and indicators. A chart can describe market behavior without establishing whether a business thesis is sound.
03
Attributed investor research
Explains a person’s argument and its support. BeliefState gives your AI that input in selective coverage, with source context and recorded changes.
Examine the argument as closely as the valuation. Open the ExampleCo product demo below, follow its cited support, and compare the recorded revision.
Check the case. Follow the evidence.
Four checks run against the ExampleCo product demo. The expanded FictionalCo illustration is separate.
Exact supporting text matched its retained source.
Later revision excluded from the earlier dated read.
Missing numerical confidence remained unknown.
Altered and withheld source text stayed unavailable.
beliefstate / research recordFictional data · real product code
Investment case
ExampleCo repeat-order case
Example author (fictional) · Published 5 January 2026
ExampleCo’s repeat orders could support growth. Customer concentration is unknown, and no customer cohort figures are supplied.
Numerical confidence
Not provided
Price target
Not provided
Demo data is fictional. This example contains no real investor research or customer data and makes no live research requests.
What was checked in the product?
BeliefState’s saved production checks from October 18, 2026 verified matching complete cases through API and MCP, comparison passages resolving into the opened cases, explicit gaps retained, and the tested unsupported input rejected. The original receipt files were checked against their saved hashes for this preview.
That check used an existing funded internal account. It does not establish a fresh public installation, current speed, investing skill, or returns. The fictional demo’s local checks ran separately on October 18.
Turn the figures, investment argument, and unanswered questions into a note you can return to. Here is a completed fictional example.
FictionalCo · Entirely invented teaching example
Growth is visible. Its durability is unresolved.
Supplied figures
Revenue grew from $100m to $120m. Operating income of $12m means a 10% margin. At the assumed $2 annual earnings per share, a $30 reference price is 15× earnings.
Research hypothesis
In the invented 6 January note, the sample analyst’s positive case depends on repeat demand continuing and acquired sales converting into cash. That is a conditional view, not a conclusion established by the financial ratios.
Countercase
The invented company note attributes $8m of the $20m revenue increase to acquisitions. Growth alone does not establish stronger underlying demand. Customer concentration and cohort retention are missing; cash conversion still needs checking.
Lower assumption
$1.50 × 10
$15
Reference assumption
$2.00 × 15
$30
Higher assumption
$2.50 × 20
$50
Research status: unresolved. The supplied figures establish 20% revenue growth and a 10% operating margin. They leave durable repeat demand, cash conversion, and financing resilience unanswered. Check customer data, cash flows, and debt terms before drawing an investment conclusion. Revisit the earnings assumptions when that evidence changes. These scenarios are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts or probabilities.
Read the invented company note
FictionalCo sells replacement parts to industrial customers. Revenue increased from $100m to $120m in this invented annual period; operating income was $12m. Acquisitions contributed $8m of the $20m revenue increase. Repeat orders increased, but customer-cohort retention and customer concentration were not disclosed.
Entirely fictional · 5 January 2026. The earnings per share, reference price, and valuation scenarios above are separate teaching assumptions, not figures reported in this note.
In the later fictional update, repeat orders slow and the sample analyst lowers conviction. The earlier note stays available so you can see which condition changed.Read the January-to-February comparison
For a company you follow, use the financials to frame your question. Then ask your connected AI for the investor cases, supporting passages, and recorded changes available in BeliefState.
Examining a company, its financial condition, price, and investment arguments to form and test a view. The process should identify the sources and assumptions behind the conclusion, what could weaken it, and what remains unknown. An analysis is not a guarantee of a stock’s future return.
How should a beginner start analyzing a stock?
Begin with one company whose business you can explain. Read its annual report and later updates, compare the financial statements, and write down the main assumptions behind the current price and investment case. Use the blank checklist to identify questions rather than trying to force a buy or sell conclusion.
What is fundamental versus technical analysis?
Fundamental analysis examines business performance, financial condition, and valuation assumptions. Technical analysis studies price, volume, and related market patterns. They answer different questions. BeliefState supplies attributed investor cases to use alongside the financial, valuation, and charting tools your process needs.
Which ratio tells me whether a stock is cheap?
No single ratio settles that question. Definitions, earnings quality, growth, financing needs, industry, and risk matter. A low P/E can reflect weak expectations or unusual earnings. Test the assumptions and compare consistent measures instead of treating one multiple as a verdict.
Where does BeliefState fit in stock research?
Use BeliefState when you want to examine the investor’s reasoning behind a stock idea. Connect your AI to open attributed cases, follow cited evidence, and compare recorded changes in available coverage. Use filings and dated market data for your financial analysis. Coverage discovery is free. Check your company’s coverage before purchasing research access.
How is research selected and checked?
BeliefState serves selected, attributed investor cases with dated support and material qualifications. Sources must pass access and permitted-use checks, and cases must pass source-backed validation before release. Inclusion does not establish that a view is correct or an investor is skilled. Inspect the support and coverage for the specific case.
What does setup involve?
Open Connect, choose your AI, and check whether setup is available. Follow that client’s instructions, sign in to BeliefState, and review the requested access. Enable the connection, then check company coverage for free before buying research access. Steps and availability vary by client; payment does not make an unavailable connection work.
The investor-research connection
Research the next idea with BeliefState.
Choose a supported AI connection and check company coverage for free. Buy research access when the available coverage fits what you want to investigate.
$20 one time
1,000 successful prepaid requests. One AI question can use several.
