NVIDIA price target changes and what drove them
One NVIDIA price target fell from $244 to $200 while its author kept a Hold rating. Another analyst raised a long-term fair value estimate after earnings. To compare the figures, start with who published each one, the date, and the assumptions behind it.
By BeliefState · Reviewed
Compare dated NVIDIA price targets
These examples are individual published estimates in U.S. dollars per share. NVIDIA’s August 26, 2026 earnings release provides the company’s own results and outlook for comparison.
Scroll across to see every column.
| Author and date | Published figure | What changed or drove the estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Passage Research, August 2026 | $244 target, Hold | The contributor expected strong near-term guidance but saw limited catalysts for further upside. |
| Passage Research, October 2026 | $200 target, Hold | The same contributor cut the target as its outlook for AI spending softened and its earnings estimates fell below consensus. |
| Davis Wilson, August 27, 2026 | $320–$400 target range | Wilson applied 20–25 times earnings to an estimate of roughly $16 in forward earnings per share. His follow-up left the timing open. |
| Brian Colello, Morningstar, August 27, 2026 | $310 fair value, up from $280 | Colello revised his long-term valuation after NVIDIA’s earnings as he raised revenue assumptions tied to AI buildouts. |
Record the assumption behind each change
The two Passage Research notes give you a before and after from the same author. Its target changed while its Hold rating stayed steady. When you compare notes, record the target, rating, and the specific assumption that changed as separate fields.
A target built from forecast earnings and a valuation multiple answers a different question from a long-term estimate of what the business is worth. Compare the earnings period, valuation method, and stated horizon before putting two figures side by side.
Check the thesis against the next report
Choose one driver, such as data center demand or margins, and record what the author expected the company to report. When NVIDIA reports again, compare the actual result with that assumption and look for a dated revision from the author.